Dayton Flushes Future: Trades Myers, Odorizzi and More

Were you looking forward to seeing Wil Myers at Kauffman Stadium in a Royals uniform? Well you’re now out of luck as Dayton Moore just pulled off what might go down as the worst trade in team history. Looking forward to Jake Odorizzi in the 2013 rotation? Yeah, he’s gone now too.

Dayton traded not one, but TWO pieces of the immediate future Sunday evening. (Photo Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports via USA TODAY Sports)

I am so enraged by this trade I am almost literally seeing red. Earlier in the week I devoted nearly 2,000 words to an article explaining why James Shields is not as good as people believe him to be and why trading Myers for him would be a terrible decision for the Royals organization.

I would not have traded Wil Myers for James Shields straight up. On that Dayton and I apparently agreed. Of course he went the other direction and dealt Myers and more.

Based on the details we have now, the Kansas City Royals will get James Shields, Wade Davis and a player to be named later or cash. The Tampa Bay Rays will receive Wil Myers, but that’s not all. They will also receive Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard.

To get two seasons (at best) of James Shields and a back of the rotation/bullpen arm in Wade Davis they just jettisoned Myers, their future in right field who was under team control for at least six years and a middle of the rotation arm in Odorizzi. Both players were ready to contribute to the major league team this season.

On top of that – as if getting simply fleeced wasn’t enough – Dayton also dealt away the enigma that is Mike Montgomery. Yes, he’s been disappointing the last two years but you don’t just give away guys with that type of talent for absolutely no reason. Making sure the Rays completely bent Kansas City over the table, Dayton Moore also included 3B prospect Patrick Leonard, the team’s 2011 5th round pick. While he’s not a big name and not currently viewed as a premium talent, he is coming off an encouraging debut season in the Appalachian League. As a 19 year old he hit 14 HR in 62 games while showing solid plate discipline and on-base skills.

No joke, this trade has made me sick to my stomach. I will have a more in depth, and hopefully more level headed analysis of the deal at some tomorrow. I’m also hoping I will wake up and this will all have been just a bad dream.

Topics: Jake Odorizzi, James Shields, Kansas City Royals, Mike Montgomery, Patrick Leonard, Tampa Bay Rays, Wade Davis, Wil Myers

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  • Stillroyal

    Fish, here’s hoping your head doesn’t level off. This deal deserves your rage, our wrath, and more. We have lost our collective minds and let the campaign calling for Moore’s head begin today. I’m not sure what else there is to say. I am stunned, sad, mad, and just angry we would be this stupid. In the long run, they will always be my beloved Royals, and despite their inabili to compete, I have remained “Still Royal”‘ but this morning I feel “Barely Royal”.

    At least we’ll always have 1985.

    • http://puckettspond.com/ Wally Fish

      I almost put in the above that this latest trade should signal the end of the Dayton Moore era but I decided to back off on that until I had a chance to sleep on things and think on this deal. My day job and family time (have to take the kids to practices tonight) will keep me from writing up my full reaction and analysis of this deal until later tonight.

      While I will approach that article with a more level head and more rational thought than the above I can assure you that I remain steadfast in my dissatisfaction to this trade.

      Stay tuned if you’re so inclined and hopefully my full analysis will be published by midnight.

      • Stillroyal

        Wally, I will be tuned in. Here’s my quick and dirty perspective:

        I agree, you have to give up talent to get some. But there is nothing special about James Shields. Shields is 31 years old and we get him for 2 years. If we aren’t contending in 2014 you know as well as I do, we’ll trade him to a contender. Does anyone believe we’d get anything resembling Myers and Odorizzi in return?

        These trades never work for the team giving up the top prospects. Ask Milwaukee if they are happy they traded for Zack. Myers has a chance to be a perennial MVP candidate in three years. Shields has the chance to pitch for LA in three years.

        Look, I am sure as the season gets closer I’ll start rooting for Shields and begin to delude myself that he’ll compete for a Cy Young because ours is a pitchers park, etc. But today, I choose to mourn the loss of possibly the best prospect to come from KC since King George.

        Speaking of King George…how about this:

        In George Brett’s 20+ year career, our Royals won 7 Division Titles
        and never finished in last place. In the 19 season since his retirement we have won 0 Division Titles and finished in last 8 times. If we had traded George away in 1974 and gotten the James Shields equivalent we would have received Clyde Wright, Jackie Brown, Catfish Hunter (who had 2 more All-Star seasons left in the tank at that point), Vida Blue, Don Wilson, or Mike Marshall.

        Now, why are these pitchers the James Shields equivalent? Pick your
        stat. In 2012 Shields was the 154th best pitcher in terms of WAR, the
        93rd best in terms of VORP, want to write off 2012 as an aberration? Ok, then in 2011 he was 35th in WAR and 21st in VORP. Don’t buy into sabremetrics? No worries. He was 41st this year in ERA among pitchers with 100 or more IP. In 2011 he was 11th. The pitchers named above are the guys who finished in the same respective rankings in 1974. And while Catfish is a Hall of Famer, not only was he not worth Brett, at that point he only had 2 All-Star seasons left in the tank at that point.

        Ok, so maybe Myers isn’t the next George Brett. Perhaps he’s merely the next Bob Hamelin. Bob won the Rookie of the Year for us in 1994 and then had a rather unremarkable career. If we had traded Bob in 1993 and received one of the same ranked pitchers back then we would have gotten: Jeremy Hernandez, Darryl Kile, Todd Stottlemyre, John Burkett, Pedro Astacio, or Steve Avery.

        Hernandez did nothing after 1993 and was never a good pitcher. Kile was certainly more valuable post-1993 than Hamelin however his 1994 and 1995 were ordinary and not as good as Hamelin’s. Kile became a very good pitcher much later and even he had just 2 more All-Star seasons post-1993. Stottlemyre was a typical innings eater. Though his value post-1993 would have been better than Hamelin’s, he did not have any seasons as good as Hamelin’s rookie season. Burkett…again, overall career value post-1993 was better than Hamelin. But he had just one All-Star season left and while that one year was arguably as good as Big Bob’s one good year, it came 8 years after the trade would have occurred. Astacio, like Stottlemyre, another innings eater with a long career of mediocrity. Better than Hamelin? Over the long run yes. Any season as good as Bob’s 1994? Nope. What about Steve Avery? Same deal. His post 1993 years are all forgettable.

        So Wil may be a one hit wonder or he may be a Hall of Famer. But my point is James Shields’ best years are certainly behind him while Myers’ best years are ahead of him. In the best scenario Shields pitches lights out and gives us one or two seasons to remember while Wil Myers becomes the next Bob Hamelin. Of course the better Shields pitches in 2013 and 2014 merely increases his asking price after that.

        In the worst scenario Myers is everything we expected him to be, goes on to a Hall of Fame career while we watch Shields pitch for 2 years and then move on and sign with LA or NY or whomever and become another footnote in MLB history of obviously dumb trades like Glen Davis for Schilling, Ernie Brogilo for Lou Brock, Jim Fergosi for Nolan Ryan, Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson, etc. Either way, Tampa has him for the next 7 years for next to nothing and we get to root for our collection of #3 starters in 2013.

        Finally, if you look at his 21 year old minor league comparables they resemble guys like Pujols and Bonds at the same age. I’m not saying he’ll be those guys, but what idiot trades a major league ready player on that level for a 31 year old innings eater with 2 years left?!

        Also, as a caveat, I did this as quickly as possible so I certainly may have missed a number here or there. Sorry for the long reply.

        Sigh.

  • natfan

    Wally, Rays fan here. Well I’m happy this morning, however losing Shields and Davis does leave me a little nervous. Shields because of his innings experience. Davis is a bulldog type he will give you a good 180 innings also. Price sometimes only goes 5 or 6 innings because of his pitch count same thing w/ Hellickson and Moore. Can Niemann rebound from his injuries or Cobb or Archer be counted on to throw 150-180 innings. So now I wonder if our buulpen will be able to handle the extra innings that Shields leaves behind As far as the Rays take, Myers ,Odorizzi, Montgomery , Leonard. Myers home run potencial will be in the majors by May. I’ve heard Odorizzi is close maybe in the pen for now. Montgomery has good upside hopefully the rays can turn that into something. Leonard hopefully future power hitter from what i see in minors. so i must say i like this trade for the rays also

    • http://puckettspond.com/ Wally Fish

      While they will have to acclimate to their new organization Odorizzi and Myers are major league ready right now. With his pitch mix Odorizzi is much better suited to be a starter and I don’t know that a relief role would do him much good in terms of development so I’d be stunned if he doesn’t start the season as your #5 or starting in Triple-A until a rotation spot opens up due to injury, ineffectiveness, etc to one of your other pitchers.

      While there are cost implications involved, given that the Rays are competitive right now I’d be shocked if Myers isn’t your Opening Day RF.

      Monty needed a change of scenery and the Royals wrecked him on a lot of levels (more on that later). He’s a much better fit in TB and definitely a high quality pickup in Leonard as a 4th player.

      I love the acquisition of Wade Davis more than anything else, but Dayton surely could have worked a smaller deal to get him without giving up so much.

  • jimfetterolf

    Like any trade, will take some time to see how it plays out, but I’m in the “Meh” camp leaning toward a good one for the Royals. Shields and Davis will be in the rotation from the start, Myers, Monty, and Odorizzi will be at the Rays’ AAA farm club, Monty maybe at AA, and everybody will be happy for a year or two.

    Dayton Moore traded prospects, the best of which may find the transition from the cozy confines of Werner and the launching pads in the mountains to the Trop a big step, as the last three saviors have, and will find that right field in most big-league parks is much bigger than at Omaha. He’ll be challenged and it will likely take a few years to even get an idea of his potential. To quote myself, he may become Mickey Mantle, he may be Clint Hurdle. That’s why they call them prospects.

    As for Odorizzi, I think his last three games cost him some glitter and made him expendable with the rehabbers coming back as well as Ventura on the horizon. Yeah, he was good at the same Omaha that Luis Mendoza won PCL pitcher of the year honors with better stats, but his ceiling looked to be lowering.

    Montgomery may be great, he may be Jeffress. I predicted a couple of weeks ago, probably on KoK, that he would be a trade throw-in like Jeffress was at Milwaukee. Not areally much of a prospect now, more a reclamation project.

    I see no reason for rage and accept that this was the chance to get a front of the rotation guy. FAs have little interest in KC, so Dayton Moore did what he had to do. With decent health the team will now contend and next winter have a couple of veterans to trade for prospects. That’s worth Wil Myers.

    • Stillroyal

      yes, but we sent the top prospect in the game for a #2 starter. In the past, lesser prospects were traded in a similar circumstance and fetched the likes of Greinke, Sabathia, and Cliff Lee. Shields is none of these. We should have gotten more. Also, Davis’ starting trends were scary before he was banished to the bullpen. Here’s hoping he’s rediscovered himself.

      • jimfetterolf

        I keep hearing “#2″ starter, then go to fangraphs and see Shields at 18, ahead of Matt Cain and Matt Harrison last year, and noted that he’s averaged 3.9 fW the last six years. He may not be an ace, but he is a consistent and fairly predictable #1 starter.

        As for top prospect, have yet to see him comped with the elite guys. More an Alex Gordon sort of top prospect, not a Trout/Harper/Hosmer guy.

        As for Davis, his scary last starting season would have put him just behind Mendoza on last year’s rotation and with 184 innings, as I recall. That’s not scary for #4 with some upside left and a friendly contract.

        As for lesser prospects, we got Shortstop Jesus, ‘Zo Cain, both with major league experience and playing premium defensive positions, and trade-bait Odorizzi and the right-handed Monty for Greinke. Milwaukee gave up a lot for Zackie, all we gave up was prospects with a total of two major league games among the four. Shields and Davis cost a lot less than Zack and filled two rotation holes, not just one. As good as Zack is, he only pitches one every five games.

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